Phone prices don’t drop at random: they follow a fairly predictable calendar tied to the successor’s launch, leftover-stock clearance and Amazon’s sale events. The exception that breaks the pattern this year: the iPhone 17 didn’t get cheaper when the iPhone 18 launched — it got more expensive, up $100 from $799 to $899, because of the global RAM shortage. Here’s the full calendar for what’s left of 2026.
The three moments when prices actually drop
- When the successor launches. The previous model loses 20% to 30% of its price within weeks, according to Swappa, simply because it stops being “the latest” overnight.
- Two to three months after the successor launches. That’s when retailers need to clear the stock they have left, and the most aggressive discounts show up — not on day one.
- During Amazon’s sale events. This year: Prime Big Deal Days, October 6-7, and Black Friday on November 27, followed by Cyber Monday on November 30. Neither invents a new discount — they just pull forward the one that was already coming from stock clearance.
When it’s each brand’s turn
| Brand / line | Successor launches | Best window to buy the previous one |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone | September | October-December (normally) |
| Samsung Galaxy S | January-February | February-April |
| Google Pixel | August | August-October |
| Any Android mid-ranger | Year-round | Prime Day / Black Friday |
The Galaxy S27 is expected for January or February 2027, so the current Galaxy S25 and S26 still have several months of discounts ahead before hitting their real floor price.
The 2026 exception: why the iPhone went up instead of down
The “successor launches, previous one drops” pattern broke this September. Apple unveiled the iPhone 18 on September 9 and, that same day, raised the base iPhone 17’s price from $799 to $899 — the global RAM shortage pushed up component costs across the whole 2026 lineup, according to Forbes and TechRadar. It’s an unusual move: generation after generation, the outgoing model normally costs less once the new one arrives, not more.
Outside the US the story is different: Amazon UK, JB Hi-Fi (Australia) and MediaMarkt (Germany) did cut the iPhone 17’s price despite Apple’s hike, to clear out remaining inventory. In the US, where our audience shops, the real way to save on an iPhone 17 today isn’t waiting for Apple to discount it — it’s a refurbished iPhone 17 Pro (Amazon Renewed), already at record lows of up to $285 off the launch price.
🛒 Check the refurbished iPhone 17 ProWhat did drop: Pixel and Galaxy are already at their lowest
Google did follow the usual pattern: after the Pixel 11 launched on August 12, Amazon dropped the Pixel 10 to $449 — its lowest price on record — and the Pixel 10a to $424, according to Android Central and 9to5Toys. Samsung is doing the same with the Galaxy S25 FE, already below its list price ahead of the Galaxy S26.
Current price, already discounted post-launch
The chart shows the price right now, not the launch price: all four are already below what they cost on release day, and it’s the cheapest they’ve been outside of an actual sale event.
What to expect for the rest of the year
If you’re not in a rush, October’s Prime Day and November’s Black Friday are the moment to buy Android: that’s when the rest of the clearance discount that’s already underway tends to land. If you need a phone right now, Pixel and Galaxy are at real lows today; the iPhone is this year’s exception — buy it new or refurbished, not the usual “previous model on sale.”
FAQ
Should I always wait for Black Friday to buy a phone? Not necessarily: many models already hit their lowest price weeks earlier, during the stock-clearance window. Black Friday bundles the deals together, but it isn’t always the year’s actual low point.
Why did the iPhone 17 go up in price instead of down? Because of the global RAM shortage, which raised component costs across Apple’s entire 2026 lineup right when it was due for its usual discount.
When will the Galaxy S26 drop in price? With the Galaxy S27 expected in January or February 2027, the S26 should only start dropping seriously from that point on.
Is a refurbished iPhone worth it to save money right now? If it’s certified (Amazon Renewed Premium or Apple-certified), yes — it’s the fastest way to dodge the iPhone 17’s price hike without waiting months.
You can check current prices in our Top 10 Android phones and Top 10 iPhones, compare models side by side in our comparison tool, or see what’s already discounted in our September phone guide and the deals before the Pixel 11.
In short: phones get cheaper when the successor launches, 2-3 months later during stock clearance, and during Amazon’s sale events (Prime Day October 6-7, Black Friday November 27). The 2026 exception is the iPhone 17, which went up $100 due to the RAM shortage instead of dropping; Pixel and Galaxy followed the usual pattern and are already at their lows.
Sources: Forbes — iPhone 17 price rises after Apple’s hike, TechRadar — why the iPhone 17’s price is more complicated this year, MacObserver — the iPhone 17 now costs $899, 9to5Toys — iPhone 17 Pro hits an all-time low on Amazon Renewed, Android Central — Amazon cuts $300 off the Pixel 10 Pro ahead of the Pixel 11, 9to5Toys — first Pixel 11 deals and the Pixel 10a at $424, TechRadar — the Pixel 10 is now cheaper than on Black Friday, About Amazon — Prime Big Deal Days 2026 dates (October 6-7), Swappa — when will phone prices drop, the-gadgeteer — Galaxy S27 forecast for January-February 2027.
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