Wondering whether to buy now or wait for the fall sales? Short answer: a phone that has been out six months or more (like the Galaxy S26) has already dropped most of what it will drop; for fresh launches (iPhone 18 Pro, Pixel 11) the real discount rarely arrives in October. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days run October 6-7, and Black Friday lands on November 27 (Cyber Monday is the 30th). Prices below are Amazon US, in dollars.
The pattern: phones get cheaper in stages
Phone prices don’t collapse overnight. They follow a fairly repeatable calendar:
- First few weeks: almost nothing. List price, with any “discount” coming as a freebie (extra storage, a case) or a trade-in credit.
- When the next generation ships: the previous model drops the most, as stores and brands clear stock. Buying guides cite cuts of roughly 20-30% on the older model within weeks of the successor, though that is a rule of thumb, not a law.
- Sale events: they give a final push to prices already heading down.
The Galaxy S26 shows it clearly. It launched in March, and by the time the iPhone 18 Pro arrived on September 9, Samsung and Amazon had already marked it down: Samsung’s US store listed the 256GB S26 Ultra at ~$1,100 after a $200 discount, and Amazon showed it around $960, its lowest so far according to the tech press. The iPhone 18 Pro (from $1,299) just came out and has practically no discounts.
Reference prices for the high-end Androids in our database
The chart shows reference prices, not sale prices: use it to see what each model costs at list, then compare with what you see on screen when the event starts.
Prime Big Deal Days (Oct 6-7): good, but not always the low
It’s the first big sale of the season: Prime members only, 48 hours. Best for:
- The Pixel 11 and last-generation Galaxy phones. In past editions the Galaxy S25 Ultra hit $350 off and the S25 $200 off; previews expect something similar for the Pixel 11, around 20% off. Those are figures from previous years, not a promise.
- Amazon’s own devices (Echo, Kindle, Fire TV), where the annual low usually lands.
The flip side: for phones, laptops and TVs, shopping analysts note October tends to fall short of November.
Black Friday (Nov 27): the yearly low for almost everything else
Every retailer competes at once, and discounts stack with carrier promos and trade-in credits. If your current phone can last seven more weeks, waiting for Black Friday saves the most on mid-range phones and last year’s flagship.
Two caveats that prevent bad buys:
- Compare against the price from 30-60 days ago, not the “list price.” A “40% off” on an inflated price may just be the normal price.
- If the phone you want is already at its all-time low today, waiting rarely gets you more: the worst case is your configuration selling out.
So, buy now or wait?
| Your situation | What to do |
|---|---|
| Broken phone or dead battery | Buy now; a refurbished or well-discounted mid-ranger fills the gap |
| You want the Galaxy S26 / S26 Ultra | Already marked down; watch Big Deal Days and Black Friday, but remaining upside is smaller |
| You want the Pixel 11 | Big Deal Days is your first reasonable window |
| You want the iPhone 18 Pro | Don’t expect serious discounts soon; look at the iPhone 17 Pro or refurbished |
| Your phone still works fine | Wait for Black Friday (Nov 27) and decide with prices in front of you |
If you’re buying, first figure out which model fits: our Top 10 Android phones and Top 10 iPhones give the order, and the comparison tool lets you cross-check specs. Once you know the model, all that’s left is checking the price on sale day.
🛒 Check the current price on AmazonBottom line: phones get cheaper in stages. Ones older than six months (Galaxy S26) are already marked down, fresh launches (iPhone 18 Pro) won’t drop soon, and Black Friday (November 27) is usually the best moment for almost everything else. Prime Big Deal Days (Oct 6-7) are a good first stop for Pixel and Galaxy, not always the year’s low.
Sources: Android Central — Prime Big Deal Days 2026, Android Central — Pixel deals at Big Deal Days, GSMArena — Amazon drops the Galaxy S26 Ultra, Forbes — Galaxy S26 Ultra cheaper before iPhone 18, Macworld — best time to buy an iPhone, SamMobile — best time of year to buy a phone.
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